Analysis Of Effects Based Operations The Road Ahead To Doing Business Differently

Currently, a significant amount of discussion in the United States Air Force centers on Effects-Based Operations (EBO) as the new way to fight. This debate ranges from Military Operations Research Society (MORS) workshops sponsored by senior civilian and military leaders to articles and booklets written by USAF general officers. This paper will provide a definition and brief discussion of EBO before focusing on its main area EBO Wargaming, Experimentation, and Exercises. The EBO in Wargaming, Experimentation, and Exercises section of the will address EBO as a concept and process and finally a concept of operations (CONOPS). In addition, it will explore an experimentation strategy for determining the "good" and "bad" aspects of EBO and how to logically progress from Wargames through Experiments to Exercises. In an effort to map the road ahead for analysis of EBO, the paper will address four questions: 1) How are Effect-Based Operations currently analyzed and/or characterized in wargames, experiments, and exercises? 2) What are the indicators of success for Effects-Based Operations in wargames, experiments, and exercises? 3) What tools and techniques are available to analyze and measure the indicators of success and do any shortfalls exist in this set of tools and techniques? 4) What can be done to improve the analysts of Effects-Based Operations? This paper will conclude by highlighting on-going efforts to incorporate and implement Effects-Based Operations in future wargames, experiments, and excises and potential impacts on doctrine, organization, training, and leadership.