Analyzing Spatial Effects Of Hotspot Policing With A Simulation Approach

Crimes tend to cluster in space. This clustering natural of crime induces criminologists and law enforcement practitioners to concentrate police resource on certain areas, i.e. crime hotspots. In general, this hotspot policing tends to reduce crime in the treatment area. This reduction may lead to either crime being displaced to the surrounding areas or the benefits of crime reduction being diffused to the surrounding areas. However, this controversy between crime displacement and diffusion of benefits is difficult to investigate with conventional empirical studies. In this article, we tackle this problem with experimentations in a virtual laboratory - SPACES. Our results reveal that crime cannot be easily displaced because crime opportunities are limited in low crime areas and offenders are often attached to the area where they perform their routine activities. Also, even if offenders are made to be highly mobile in an experiment, their crime places do not seem to change significantly and they are still vulnerable to hotspot policing. Our experiments also suggest that little evidence can be found to support that a diffusion of crime control benefits occurs in nearby areas.