Eying The Crippled Hegemon

As the global financial crisis swept the West, China emerged to be the only big economy that prospered in the shadow of the global recession. With the U.S. hobbled in recession, Chinese analysts are engaged in a heated debate over the causes, nature, and implications of the global financial crisis and, by extension, over whether the American hegemony is on the decline. Many are quick to argue that the financial crisis would bode a recession even more severe than the Great Depression, prophesying an end to the American hegemony. Others caution against such a conclusion, arguing instead that the American hegemony will likely to sustain in the decades to come. Concomitant with the debate over the status of the American hegemony is the discussion whether China should “seize the opportunity” in “accomplishing something” (yousuo zuowei). How Chinese analysts and policy makers assess the status of the American hegemony in the wake of the global recession would be crucial for us to understand (predict) China's (possible) strategic choices. For instance, to what extent, China's call to reconstituting the IMF should be understood in light of China's reassessment of the American power? To what extent, are the Chinese analysts and policy makers viewing the perceived decline of American power as an opportunity for expanding China's power and influences? How would China's reassessment of the status of the American hegemony influence Beijing's grand strategy thinking? This paper will try to answer these important questions through a close examination of original Chinese texts and documents, and interviews with government officials as well as think tank analysts.