Import Competition And Internal Migration

We examine the U.S. internal migration response to increased import competition following the granting of Permanent Normal Trade Relations to China in 2001. Using a variety of data sets and empirical approaches, we find that local labor markets most exposed to the policy change experienced a relative reduction in population growth over the following decade. The majority of the effect occurs at a lag of 7 to 10 years, and is most pronounced among young individuals and low education groups. Such population adjustments should influence the interpretation of evidence in the growing literature on the effects of import competition on local labor markets.