Israels Next Northern War

This report provides a detailed analysis of the increasingly prevalent phenomenon of hybrid warfare, where law-abiding militaries, like the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), confront non-state actors, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, that blend unrestricted warfare tactics and sophisticated information operations with the advanced weaponry of modern conventional forces. When the next Israel-Hezbollah conflict erupts, it will bear little resemblance to anything that has come before between Israel and its adversaries. Changes in the strategic environment in the twelve years since the last Israeli-Hezbollah conflict will translate into unparalleled death and destruction, because Hezbollah now possesses more firepower than 95 percent of the world’s conventional militaries, and more rockets and missiles than all European NATO members combined. Hezbollah’s objective will be the defeat of Israel in the forum of public opinion. This report articulates how actions taken by U.S., Israeli, and other allied militaries in actual combat situations comply with, and often exceed, the requirements of the LOAC. It also explains how Hezbollah will intentionally exploit that same body of law to stymie the IDF in battle and discredit the latter’s self-defense operations in the hopes to securing a strategic victory in the forum of public opinion.