Methods To Quantify Uncertainty In Human Health Risk Assessment

The purpose of this document is to provide an introductory handbook for the Air Force remedial project manager (RPM) and other health professionals, such as the Bioenviroumental Engineer, to identify the appropriate use of probabilistic techniques for a site, and the methods by which probabilistic risk assessment can be used to quantify uncertainty. This document assumes that the RPM or other health professional is somewhat familiar with the basics of the risk assessment and risk management decision making process as implemented in hazardous waste site remediations. This document emphasizes the Monte Carlo probabilistic method and the exposure assessment step of the human health risk assessment process. This includes the techniques and methodology as provided in the United States Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS). Probabilistic risk assessment should be viewed as one of a set of appropriate tools in a tiered approach to performing enhanced site specific risk assessment. Example calculations showing results of deterministic and probabilistic risk assessments are provided for illustration as well as several appendices that contain supporting information.