Speculative Attacks And Currency Crises
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Speculative Attacks and Currency Crises
Author | : Ms.Inci Ötker |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 38 |
Release | : 1995-11-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451853548 |
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This paper estimates a speculative attack model of currency crises in order to identify the role of economic fundamentals and any early warning signals of a potential currency crisis. The data from the Mexican economy was used to illustrate the model. Based on the results, a deterioration in fundamentals appears to have generated high one-step-ahead probabilities for the regime changes during the sample period 1982-1994. Particularly, increases in inflation differentials, appreciations of the real exchange rate, foreign reserve losses, expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, and increases in the share of short-term foreign currency debt appear to have contributed to the market pressures and regime changes in that period.
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