The Impact Of Trade And Technology On The Regional Migration Of Routine Workers

This paper analyses the effects of trade and technology shocks on the internal migration of workers in the United States between 1990 and 2007. Exploiting geographical variation in the intensity of exposure to trade in local labour markets, the paper finds that routine workers exhibit a lower out-migration response to rising Chinese import competition than non-routine workers. That is despite the China trade shock triggering larger falls in routine labour demand and wages. This goes hand-in-hand with falls in the shares of routine in-migrants into more technologically advanced regions, in which the automation of routine-tasks displaces routine workers and reduces their employment opportunities. These findings suggest that the simultaneous occurrence of trade and technology shocks contribute to the decline in US regional migration, which in turn slows down the adjustment process of local labour markets.