Understanding Us Inflation During The Covid Era
Download Understanding Us Inflation During The Covid Era full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online free Understanding Us Inflation During The Covid Era ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!
Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era
Author | : Laurence M. Ball |
Publisher | : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 2022-10-28 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
Download Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper analyzes the dramatic rise in U.S. inflation since 2020, which we decompose into a rise in core inflation as measured by the weighted median inflation rate and deviations of headline inflation from core. We explain the rise in core with two factors, the tightening of the labor market as captured by the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment, and the pass-through into core from past shocks to headline inflation. The headline shocks themselves are explained largely by increases in energy prices and by supply chain problems as captured by backlogs of orders for goods and services. Looking forward, we simulate the future path of inflation for alternative paths of the unemployment rate, focusing on the projections of Federal Reserve policymakers in which unemployment rises only modestly to 4.4 percent. We find that this unemployment path returns inflation to near the Fed’s target only under optimistic assumptions about both inflation expectations and the Beveridge curve relating the unemployment and vacancy rates. Under less benign assumptions about these factors, the inflation rate remains well above target unless unemployment rises by more than the Fed projects.
Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era Related Books
Pages: 0
Pages: 27
Pages: 402
Pages: 448
Pages: 42