Average Inflation Targeting In A Behavioral Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian Model

We analyze the optimal window length in the average inflation targeting rule within a Behavioral THANK model of Pfäuti and Seyrich (2022). The central bank faces an occasionally binding effective lower bound (ELB) or persistent supply shocks and can also use quantitative easing when we merge Pfäuti and Seyrich (2022) with Sims et al. (2020). We show that the optimal averaging period is infinitely long in the case of a conventional degree of myopia. However, finite yet long-lasting window lengths dominate for a higher cognitive discounting. We solve the model locally and globally to disentangle the effects of uncertainty about hitting the ELB in the future, leading to a downward inflation bias in the case of the global solution. Given the solution technique, the welfare loss difference is considerably decreasing in the degree of history dependence.Appendix available https://ssrn.com/abstract=4359563.