Evaluating Alternative Operations Strategies To Improve Travel Time Reliability

The research included an effort to determine the economic value of improvements in travel time reliability by applying options theory from the financial sector. This method is predicated on determining the certainty equivalent of the variability of speed. This innovative approach, briefly summarized in the body of the report and described in an appendix, deserves further exploration despite the lack of consensus from experts about its validity. A prominent part of the report presents a forecast of the year 2030 under alternative assumptions that may influence travel time reliability. The researchers set out three alternative outcomes--optimistic, mediocre, and pessimistic--regarding climate change, economics, and demographics. In addition, they examined a range of technological developments that might affect reliability. To paint a picture of the future, they prepared a concept of operations for the year 2030.